spss打开oracle,IBM计划收购SPSS对SAP、ORACLE的影响
Did SAP and Oracle miss a smart
opportunity?
ComputerWorld, By Eric Lai, July 28, 2009
today will immediately turn IBM from pretender into contender in
the high-end analytics and data mining market, say analysts, and
could leave rivals such as SAP AG or Oracle Corp. ruing a missed
opportunity.
It continues IBM's recent tradition of bolstering its
Information On Demand lineup with massive purchases. IBM bought
Cognos Inc. in late 2007 for $5 billion, allowing it to leap from
fifth to third place in the overall $22 billion business analytics
software market, according to a 2008 report from IDC Corp.
IBM's purchase of SPSS will have an even more dramatic effect.
According to IDC, IBM had less than one-half a percent of the $1.5
billion global market in 2008 for advanced analytic tools -- a
small, but key, segment of the overall business analytics
market.
"IBM would probably be the first to admit that it took its focus
off the predictive analytics/data mining market over the past
several years," Forrester Research analyst James Kobielus wrote in
a blog today. He said IBM "buried" its Intelligent Miner
data-mining tools.
Buying SPSS, which had 14% of the predictive analytics/data
mining market segment, will allow IBM to leap from 13th into second
place, behind only SAS Institute Inc. SAS dominates the segment
with a 33% market share.
It will also allow IBM to technically integrate its other
business intelligence software with similar offerings from
SPSS.
"The integration of predictive analytics with other analytic or
operational technologies is still ahead of us, so there was a lot
of value to be gained from SPSS beyond what it had standalone,"
wrote independent analyst Curt Monash in an e-mail. "IBM's
ownership immediately makes SPSS a stronger competitor to SAS. Any
advantage to the rest of IBM depends on the integration roadmap and
execution."
SPSS founded in '68
Founded 41 years ago, Chicago-based SPSS originally created
basic statistics-crunching software that was widely-used by several
generations of undergraduate and graduate students in fields such
as social sciences, marketing and business.
Evolving into a cutting-edge data-mining vendor, SPSS actually
"coined the phrase 'predictive analytics,' with the rest of the
industry then coming around to use it," according to Monash.
Kobielus expects IBM to phase out its faltering Intelligent
Miner products and keep SPSS as a separate brand. One tricky aspect
of the integration will be to resolve which text analytics software
-- SPSS' or IBM's OmniFind software -- will prevail, he said.
"Another issue is how IBM will integrate the SPSS offerings into
its still-evolving in-database analytics roadmap for InfoSphere
Balanced Warehouse," Kobielus wrote. "Hopefully, IBM will maintain
and extend SPSS' already extensive in-database analytics
integration with a broad range of vendor data warehouses, including
such Big Blue rivals as Oracle, Microsoft, Sybase, and
Teradata."
Deal hurts SAP?
As for who is potentially hurt by the IBM-SPSS linkup, Kobielus
points to one vendor: SAP.
Bolstered by its 2007 buy of Business Objects, SAP ranked second
in the overall business analytics market, according to IDC. It also
handily topped the $6.3 billion query, reporting and analysis tools
segment in 2008, according to the research firm.
But SAP is even less of a player in the high-end predictive
analytics/data mining segment than IBM was, according to IDC.
"Predictive analytics is an increasingly key component of a
full-fledged BI solution stack," Kobielus wrote. SAP, which resells
many SPSS apps, may "have missed the boat" by not grabbing its
partner.
Monash, meanwhile, pointed to both SAP and Oracle. "It would
have given them a competitive advantage against the other in the
integration of predictive analytics with packaged operational apps.
That's a missed opportunity for each."
As for whether there will be more mergers and acquisitions in
the wake of the IBM-SPSS deal, Monash had a one-word answer.
"Always," he said.
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